After two years, the first member of the current Slovak government visited Kyiv, Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák.
Leaving aside the qualitatively dynamic relations between the highest government officials of Slovakia and Ukraine, it is positive that the governments of both countries communicate regularly, with three joint intergovernmental meetings already held. This reflects the pragmatic nature of the relationship and the recognition of the fundamental need for communication and relationship-building for both sides.
Ukraine has been something of a “Terra incognita” for Slovakia. For example, in terms of Slovak government visits, V4 countries, Austria, other major EU states, as well as the USA and Russia, have conducted many more visits. Paradoxically, Ukraine is our largest neighboring country. Between 1993 and 2024, it ranked only 11th in terms of foreign visits by Slovak government representatives, with most official visits occurring during the first government of R. Fico (2006–2010).
Potential lies mainly in reconstruction and recovery
According to Oxford Economics estimates, Ukraine’s reconstruction will require more than USD 300 billion, and its duration will range from 12 to 41 years depending on the conflict’s development. The greatest potential is expected in construction, energy, and infrastructure development. For Slovakia, this represents a historic opportunity, and active communication and the building of both intergovernmental and business contacts will be key prerequisites for success.
For example, the Czechs have implemented monitoring of current tenders in Ukraine and maintain two trade offices on its territory. The Czech government will also co-finance projects in Ukraine at a level of 1 billion CZK annually until 2030, while Czech exports to Ukraine are growing significantly. Poland, meanwhile, has allowed the relocation of Ukrainian business entities to its territory to ensure the continuity of their operations.
Slovakia has received EUR 100 million from the EU to support Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure through Eximbank. Positively, at the latest intergovernmental meeting, four new agreements were signed, including cooperation on post-war reconstruction in Ukraine, which is expected to create new opportunities for Slovak businesses.
It also remains a fact that, according to the Kiel Institute, Slovakia was the sixth-largest supporter of Ukraine relative to GDP during the Russian invasion, up until January 2024.
Opportunities beyond the defense industry
Slovakia reports record levels of arms exports. Although this specific industrial segment does not employ large numbers, it could potentially drive the production of dual-use materials or partial transformation of the automotive industry. It will not be a question of funding, as huge EU packages are again being allocated, but rather how effectively the EU and Slovakia will utilize them. Here again, inspiration can be drawn from Ukraine itself, which excels across the entire defense production chain.
Eastern Slovakia as a future Burgenland?
Political and public discussions have suggested that eastern Slovakia could significantly benefit from its location, not only in terms of Ukraine’s reconstruction but also from its potential EU membership. The scenario envisioned is similar to Austria’s Burgenland, which was once a less-developed region. Although Burgenland has indeed developed significantly, it still remains the least-developed region in Austria. In this context, Slovakia is hampered by its investment deficit, especially in infrastructure and particularly in connectivity with Ukraine, where Hungary and Poland have taken the lead.
While Ukraine’s accession to the EU is difficult to imagine due to the ongoing “hot” conflict, pressures for rapid integration open discussions that candidate countries could potentially join the bloc (for now) without full voting rights. For Slovakia, this signals the need to be prepared and to secure the best position for cross-border development.
Of course, the question remains whether, and to what extent, eastern Slovakia can become a “Slovak Burgenland,” considering the hard-to-change geographic constraints of the Carpathians. Nevertheless, an active role of the state, engagement of the business sector, and the use of upcoming EU investment opportunities (including building defense capabilities), along with the prospect of Ukraine’s EU membership, could give eastern Slovakia a bright future.
Author: Filip Šandor, analyst and co-founder of EXPORT ANALYTICA for SITA
