China is currently preparing its 15th Five-Year Plan for the period 2026–2030, during which it is analysing the key strategic issues and areas of its future development. There would be nothing unusual about this if it were not the world’s second-largest economy. The new plan will therefore tell us a great deal not only about the global future, but also about Europe’s and Slovakia’s direction.
The outlines of the new Chinese plan suggest an effort to achieve high-quality development through technological self-sufficiency, industrial modernisation, and the strengthening of domestic demand. China wants to produce advanced technologies and is already actively trying to attract talent from all over the world. It is also striving to succeed in the race for the development of artificial intelligence, although in terms of investment the United States currently clearly dominates.
Green transformation
Economic and technological decoupling will likely become inevitable in the long term. Technological independence is presented in China as a matter of national security, which may have fundamental economic and security implications for the entire world—without mutual interdependence, it is much easier to provoke conflict.
China intends to continue its green transformation, while the EU is rather slowing down its green objectives. In addition to renewable energy sources, Beijing plans to focus on the aviation and space industries as well as quantum technologies. The Chinese Communist Party set broad ambitions long ago that the country aims to achieve by 2035 and 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China).
For Slovakia, such a plan carries important messages. As an automotive powerhouse, we cannot afford to passively observe developments. China’s strategic objectives may significantly influence global supply and value chains.
The importance of strategic planning
The plan therefore does not serve only China, but paradoxically also us, because it sends clear signals about the direction of the world’s second-largest economy as well as the entire East Asian economic core. At the same time, it highlights the need to understand and embrace the importance of strategic planning—without it, we will simply lose.
However, the problem is not planning itself. Planning is not unique to China; we have it in Slovakia as well, in companies, corporations, and public administration. Slovakia has several strategies running until 2030, although many of them would need updating. The EU itself presents a new strategy in various sectors almost every month.
The problem lies rather in continuity and in the willingness to stand behind plans responsibly, politically, and courageously across electoral cycles, as well as in a mindset that often focuses on short-term gains rather than long-term prosperity.
Preparing a single strategic document, identifying trends, and defining several critical areas on which we will focus must become part of the everyday communication of those in charge—similar to Slovakia’s accession to the EU in the past. Strategic goals must be heard in every second speech, at international forums or expert discussions, and should not be unnecessarily politicised. Only then can a critical mass of the public stand behind them. Without information and education, however, this will not be possible.
We cannot afford to slow down
The recipe lies in continuity in established plans and discipline in adhering to them. Education, decentralisation (including the decentralisation of competencies), subsidiarity, proportionality, and possibly deeper integration with the EU can serve as tools, because under the conditions of today’s international fragmentation Slovakia has only a limited chance on its own.
Fragmentation means tougher times for small states, and within the EU it slows down decision-making capacity—and slowing down is something neither the EU nor Slovakia can afford today, even though we are doing so, willingly or not.
Incidentally, it is precisely the EU thanks to which we have a nationwide plan respected by four governments already—the Recovery and Resilience Plan. The path therefore leads through deeper integration, a reassessment of how the EU functions, and greater awareness of European issues not only among the general public but especially among politicians. After all, European policy equals our domestic policy.
Despite everything, outlines of a long-term vision for Slovakia have already been presented by several competent actors. In recent days, after half a year, the Prime Minister himself has again referred to it. The discussion on the development of nuclear energy, or its connection to data centres and artificial intelligence, also has the character of a long-term vision. It is precisely strategic foresight, genuine societal debate, responsibility, and above all continuity that can restart Slovakia not only economically, but also socially.
Author: Filip Šandor, analyst and co-founder of EXPORT ANALYTICA, for SITA
